Showing posts with label STOCK - SUDDEN FALLS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label STOCK - SUDDEN FALLS. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Porters 5 forces model and the key to investing in stocks

Moat - What is it?

According to Warren Buffet a successful company is one which is having a "MOAT" 

Companies that are performing well are constantly challenged by competitors but with a deep and wide "MOAT" these companies are able to sustain competition.



Porters 5 forces model 

The five-forces perspective is associated with its originator, Michael E. Porter of Harvard University. This framework was first published in Harvard Business Review in 1979.

The state of competition in an industry is decided by five forces. 

These are 

  1. Threat of entry,
  2. Threat of substitution,
  3. Bargaining power of suppliers,
  4. Bargaining power of buyers; and 
  5. Intensity of rivalry.





Application

  1. A successful company's strategy is aimed to best defend itself from such forces.  Deep dive into each of these forces is required to determine the competitive strength of a company.
  2. A company which is able to score well on all these forces is able to consistently deliver good profits and growth.  It is able to handle these forces much better than competition. Hence its stock is able to provide consistent returns to its shareholders. 
  3. With time the status of companies keeps changing with respect to these five forces and hence a careful study goes a long way in determining whether the stock is attractive or not. 
  4. Porter's analysis framework defines the important criteria to determine the stability of a corporation. High threat levels typically signal that future profits may deteriorate and vice versa. 

For example, a hot firm in a growing industry might quickly become obsolete if barriers to entry are not present. Likewise, a company selling products for which there are numerous substitutes will not be able to exercise pricing power to improve its margins, and it may even lose market share to its competitors.
The qualitative measures introduced by Michael Porter in Porter's five-force framework allow investors to draw conclusions about a corporation that are not immediately apparent on the balance sheet but will have a material impact on future performance.
 Although quantitative factors such as the price/earnings and debt/equity ratio are often the primary concerns for investors, qualitative criteria play an equal role in uncovering stocks that will provide long-term value. 

DISCLAIMER :  THIS BLOG IS FOR INFORMATION AND NOT TO SOLICIT ANY BUSINESS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF STOCK IN FUTURE. EQUITY STOCK INVESTING IS A WITH RISK INVESTING INCLUDING RISK ON CAPITAL INVESTED. PLEASE TAKE AN INFORMED DECISION BEFORE INVESTING IN A EQUITY STOCK

Friday, November 27, 2020

Wuhan Corona Virus aka COVID 19 pandemic - data and new learnings - Courtsey Mckinsey


Chronology

17th November 2019 - According to The South China Morning post the first case of the 2019 Corona Virus - also called as Covid -19 was first discovered in Wuhan.

20th December 2019 - There were at least 60 confirmed cased of the Virus and a lockdown was imposed. (Source : The Guardian)

31st December 2019 - China informed WHO of the situation calling it a "pneumonia of unknown cause" (Source : The WHO website)

10th of January 2020 - WHO issued its first guidance - calling the virus as "Novel Coronavirus" (Source : The WHO website)

23rd January 2020 - The Chinese Govt. announced lockdown of Wuhan (Source : Wikipedia)

30th January 2020 - First case of Corona Virus is discovered in India as a student from Wuhan travels to Kerala, India and tests positive. (Source : Wikipedia)

11th March 2020 - WHO declares Novel CoronaVirus also called as Covid -19 a "pandemic" (Source : The WHO website)

24th March 2020 - The Govt. of India announces a 21 day nationwide lockdown. (Source : Wikipedia)


NIFTY (past 1 year) - fall due to lockdown and after impact 




Situation now and Analysis - Wuhan Corona Virus 






(Disclaimer : This blog is for information purposes only)


Wednesday, April 8, 2020

The Virus from China, the WHO, markets and way ahead.

17th November 2019 - According to The South China Morning post the first case of the 2019 Corona Virus - also called as Covid -19 was first discovered in Wuhan.

20th December 2019 - There were at least 60 confirmed cased of the Virus and a lockdown was imposed.  (Source : The Guardian)

31st December 2019 - China informed WHO of the situation calling it a "pneumonia of unknown cause" (Source : The WHO website)

10th of January 2020 - WHO issued its first guidance - calling the virus as "Novel Coronavirus" (Source : The WHO website)

23rd January 2020 - The Chinese Govt. announced lockdown of Wuhan (Source : Wikipedia)

30th January 2020 - First case of Corona Virus is discovered in India as a student from Wuhan travels to Kerala, India and tests positive. (Source : Wikipedia)

11th March 2020 - WHO declares Novel CoronaVirus also called as Covid -19 a "pandemic" (Source : The WHO website)

24th March 2020 - The Govt. of India announces a 21 day nationwide lockdown.  (Source : Wikipedia)


A careful observation of these dates raises many questions

a) Why is it that the virus spread so fast to the rest of the world and not within China?

 The lockdown in Wuhan was imposed 20 days after China informed The WHO.
( Google search : There are 55 pairs of trains daily between Wuhan and Shanghai and 30 pair of trains daily between Wuhan and Bejing)

b) Why did the WHO take so much time to declare Covid -19 a pandemic?

Luckily India started testing and quarantine of travellers from abroad (starting with those from Wuhan) from as early as January 24th 2020.  This resulted in slow spread of infection in India.


Markets 

Markets do not like uncertainty and uncertainty is exactly what we got out of this event.  How many fatalities, job losses, industry closures, bankruptcies, timelines of lockdown - how long etc. etc.

Longer the uncertainty - bigger the problem.




The Way Ahead 

This is for the first time that an economic sudden stop at the level of global economy has been witnessed. 

No economic model or corporate valuation model can easily incorporate the range of uncertainties associated with an event of this magnitude. 

Various Governments have announced policy measures to ease the difficulties - announcing interest rate cutes, deferring tax payments, loan repayments etc etc. 

However the extent of effectiveness of such measures will only be clear over a period of time. 

Coming to India - as the lockdown is in progress, one can observe that consumption of essentials food, packaged foods, medicines etc. continues as the supply chain has been generally intact. 

Similarly data consumption (internet viewing and video conferencing) is on the rise and this may be a secular trend as more and more capabilities are built to facilitate remote working. 

Primary health care and insurance are some other sectors which are functional (online buying of insurance and diagnostic tests) and are likely to do well in future as well. 

As long as companies which are providing such services do not have debt  - they do make a compelling case to invest into. 

Even if that is the case - one has to be very cautious of the situation - as this time it is the virus, and not the economics that decides the time line. 


DISCLAIMER :  THIS BLOG IS FOR INFORMATION AND NOT TO SOLICIT ANY BUSINESS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF STOCK IN FUTURE. EQUITY STOCK INVESTING IS A WITH RISK INVESTING INCLUDING RISK ON CAPITAL INVESTED. PLEASE TAKE AN INFORMED DECISION BEFORE INVESTING IN A EQUITY STOCK

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Corona Virus, Oil Wars and investing..

Corona Virus has significantly slowed the economic activities in economic engines of the world. 

China - has still not come back to normal although the trajectory is upwards 


Europe - is slowing down as the virus spreads and Italy faces a complete lockdown. 


US - It's still time before one sees the peak of the damage done by the virus. 






WHO report as on 9th March 2020



India has as of now 50 reported cases of Corona Virus out of which 16 are Italians.  The spread of the disease so far remains controlled but the risks remain. 


Meanwhile Oil is the other news which had a dampening impact on the markets. 

On the 9th of March 2000, Oil prices have suffered their biggest fall since the day in 1991 when American forces launched air strikes on Iraqi troops following their invasion of Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter, launched a price war over the weekend. The move followed the implosion of an alliance between the OPEC cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
The kingdom and Russia came together to form the so-called OPEC+ alliance in 2016 after oil prices plunged to $30 a barrel. Since then, the two leading exporters have orchestrated supply cuts of 2.1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia wanted to increase that number to 3.6 million barrels through 2020 to take account of weaker consumption. 
But Russian President Vladimir Putin, worried about ceding too much ground to American oil producers, refused to go along with the plan and his energy minister, Alexander Novak on Friday signaled a fierce battle to come for market share when he said countries could produce as much as they please from April 1.

Investing 

"One of the greatest things about investing is that the only real penalty is for making losing investments. There is no penalty for omitting loosing investments, of course just rewards.  And even for missing a few winners the penalty is bearable." The Most Important Thing : Uncommon Sense for The Thoughtful Investor by Howard Marks. 

So on a risk return basis we wait patiently.

The one thing which is required to buy stocks at a good price is money - which we have ample - as profits have been booked and there is ample cash on books. 

Right now in times of this much fear... even the greed needs to be in control. 

DISCLAIMER :  THIS BLOG IS FOR INFORMATION AND NOT TO SOLICIT ANY BUSINESS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF STOCK IN FUTURE. EQUITY STOCK INVESTING IS A WITH RISK INVESTING INCLUDING RISK ON CAPITAL INVESTED. PLEASE TAKE AN INFORMED DECISION BEFORE INVESTING IN A EQUITY STOCK

Thursday, April 18, 2019

Jet Airways grounded - Stock tanks 31% today - what happened?

India's private airlines Jet Airways has been grounded after having ben in operation for close to 26 years.

This happened after the airlines request for more monies from the banks - which it already owns more than Rs.8000 crores- was declined.  The airlines thus ran out of cash and had to shut down its operations.

Jet airways stock plummeted by more than 30% in a day.


JET AIRWAYS STOCK ON 18TH APRIL 2019 
(SOURCE : NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE of INDIA)


A brief look at thr airlines financials and one will be able to understand that this problem has been going on for some time.  The reserves of Jet Airways had turned negative since March 2012 


BALANCE SHEET OF JET AIRWAYS MARCH 2007 TO MARCH 2018
(NEGATIVE RESERVES SINCE MARCH 2012 ONWARDS)
(SOURCE: WWW.SCREENER.IN)



This reiterates that a business with worsening financials will face a fall in stock price.


WHAT NEXT FOR JET AIRWAYS ?


  1. Jet Airways most valuable assets are its slots that it has airports around the world and its bilateral rights.  These are going to remain for 90 days.  Beyond that they will go and there will be no use for anyone to buy the airline. 
  2. Potential investors will need time to go over the books of Jet Airways and complete the due diligence process. Does the airline have time for this?
  3. The creditors (or lenders) have decided  not to go through the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) route to recover their dues. This is because IBC is a time taking process and will end up hurting the valuation of the airline.  This will mean that the lenders will be able to recover less monies. 
  4. The lenders led by SBI (State Bank of India) have stepped up efforts to engage with Etihad Airways - Jet's second largest shareholder that wants an exemption from a capital markets rule to consider re-investing in it - on an urgent resolution path for the airline. 
  5. As on date the lenders can only offer 32% of the airlines shares that are pledged with them by founder Naresh Goyal.   Goyal stepped down from the Chairmanship of the airline on March 25th 2019 and then lenders agreed with a board approval from Jet to convert loans into equity giving them about 51% stake in the airline.  But this was thrown into doubt last week when the Supreme Court set aside RBIs circular on February 12, 2018, under which the Jet Loan restructuring was arrived at.

Time is running out for one of India's oldest and one of the largest private airline.  It is a tough road ahead. 


(DISCLAIMER:  FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. )

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

8K MILES - FRAUD, FORGERY AND OTHER SUSPICIONS (Bloomberg article)

It’s been a downhill ride for shares of technology company 8K Miles Software Services Ltd. The cloud services provider has lost 90 percent of its value since hitting an all-time high of Rs 1,029.95 apiece on Nov. 29, 2017.
The slide was accelerated by a string of suspicious developments including, most recently, an allegation by its Promoter and Chief Executive Officer Suresh Venkatachari that two brokerages fraudulently sold a large chunk of company shares owned by him.
Before that an auditor of a private company owned by RS Ramani – Promoter and Chief Financial Officer of 8K Miles Software Services, alleged forgery and resigned. 8K Miles Promoter Venkatachari was once co-owner of that company and also served as director on its board at the time of the forgery allegations.
And then there’s the issue of suspicious related-party transactions and continuous sale of shares by Ramani, who resigned last month. 

8k MILES SOFTWARE SERVICES 
STOCK PRICE 30/01/2014 TO 22/10/2018 
TO READ MORE