Friday, April 12, 2019

Elections, Economics and Earnings

Indian elections are the largest democratic exercise in the history of mankind.  Every general elections we better this record of ours.

As India's population ages and grows - we will continue to have more and more people voting in every coming general elections - at least for another 20-30 years.

Some facts about the Indian General Elections
  • 900 million voters 
  • 66% of the the voters voted in the 2014 elections 
  • 2354 registered political parties 
  • 29 states and 7 federal territories
  • 11 million election officials 
  • 1 million polling stations 
  • 2.3 million electronic voting machines 
The general elections in India are to be held in 7 phases from the 11th of April ( already concluded) to the 19th of May. 

Election results shall be announced on thr 23rd of May, 2019.


While the election fever is on corporate India will declare its annual results for the FY 18- 19 (Financial year 2018-2019 i.e. 01-April-2018 to 31-March-2019).  The results season - as it is called begins today - with Infosys declaring its annual results and will continue through the month. 

So how much does the result of elections etc. impact the stock markets and are they really as important as the earnings of companies or the economics of the country.



INDIA'S per capita GDP - from 2010 to 2018 


INDIAN STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE DURING VARIOUS GOVERNMENTS


A closer look at the data suggests that growth of the economy and earnings of corporates have a much more bearing impact on their stock prices than the govt's which are in power. 

The growth of the Indian economy is also dependent on the global growth.  Indian Economy is more and more getting integrated with the global economy.  

Therefore policies of the major central banks  - starting with the US Fed to European, Chinese and Japanese banks as well as the policy of India's central bank - The Reserve bank of India are also likely to impact the growth on Indian Economy.  

A careful watch on these factors is as much required as is the result of election and which party/coalition will come to power.   
(DISCLAIMER:  FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. )