Are China and the US are at heightened risk of triggering armed conflict in the run-up to November's presidential election.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's statement has sparked a deep analysis of the situation amongst the Global Market Participants.
His statement
If an aircraft is downed, or a naval vessel sunk or disabled, what next steps have been agreed in order to avoid immediate military escalation?
— Kevin Rudd, Former Australian Prime Minister -
Mr. Rudd further mentioned that
"The sheer quantity of naval and air force hardware deployed by both sides makes an unintended (or even intended) collision increasingly probable"
and
"The once unthinkable outcome – actual armed conflict between the United States and China – now appears possible for the first time since the end of the Korean War,"
US and China are likely to meet on the August 15th to discuss progress on implementation of the phase one trade deal and so far China is lagging on its purchasing commitments.
Trade is known to be the only active and constructive channel for dialogue between the United States and China, with wider ties deteriorating on a daily basis.
The risks will be especially high over the next few critical months between now and the November U.S. presidential election, as both U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping confront, and exploit, the messy intersection of domestic politics, national security imperatives, and crisis management.
Domestic political opinion in both countries has turned toxic.
The list of friction points is long, from cyber-espionage and the weaponization of the dollar to Hong Kong and the South China Sea.
The channels for high-level political and military dialogue have atrophied when they are needed most. And both presidents face internal political pressures that could tempt them to pull the nationalist lever.
The US presidential election is due on the 3rd of November 2020.
The U.S. Congress is then scheduled to certify the electoral result on January 5, 2021, and the new or incumbent president and vice president will be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
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